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There is an ongoing debate on where the global economy is heading with one camp saying that low interest rates and quantitative easing will cause a period of higher inflation. Whilst the other camp believe that the lack of demand, excess capacity and the lack of liquidity will all lead to a period of deflation similar to Japan.

With the global economy appearing to slowdown, commodity prices starting to correct and the banking sector still looking fragile it seems as though the latter may have the correct prognosis. So what of it what should we do? Well here are what we consider to be the best investment ideas in a deflationary environment:

1. Cash

Whilst we appreciate that there isn’t an enormous amount to be made in cash and that interest rates are at an all time low our outlook has to change in a deflationary environment.  When asset prices are falling even if we are receiving 0% interest in cash then we are actually making money as the purchasing power of our cash is actually increasing.

Revising our growth expectations is essential making sure that we have  a higher  degree of liquidity during such conditions could increase your wealth significantly.

2. Debt

Paying down debt during periods of deflation is also a good though it may not appear to be an investment as such it really is. As we saw earlier the value of money increases during deflationary times as does the value of debt so clearing it off again means that you are significantly adding to your wealth.

3. Bonds

Bonds provide a solid alternative to cash and whilst yields may fall there should be some appreciation in the asset price. Government treasuries are a preference as corporate bonds could run into difficulties.

Another alternative would be to use managed bond fund that doesn’t allocate on an index basis. One great example of this is Stratton Street Capital’s Wealthy Nations Bond Fund that allocates on a global basis taking into account a debtor’s ability to pay and allocating to the most solvent nations.

4. Shorts

During deflation asset prices fall this would certainly apply to equities, property and commodities which, could all experience periods of sustained losses. Investing in assets that can take advantage of these falls could provide a real opportunity for growth through shorting (selling the asset before you own it and then buying it back at the lower price for a profit).

Taking short positions yourself can prove to be expensive and complicated we would therefore recommending finding an alternative route. The advent of Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) means that most indices and commodities can be shorted. Another way would to use a good Managed Futures Program that employs an established Commodity Trading Adviser (CTA) that will trade most sectors taking short positions when asset prices are falling.

Both of these options provide a highly liquid way of investing and benefiting from falling asset prices though the former is passive and the latter a much more active form of investing.

5. Dividend Yielding Stocks

Whilst shares are probably in for a tough time in a deflationary environment high dividend yielding stocks may be an exception to this rule. For starters the dividend yield would prove to be a welcome return on investment at a time when pickings could be very slim.

Whilst this doesn’t mean that values can’t fall, if you are looking at market leaders they may be able to maintain there competitive edge whilst other companies succumb to thinner and thinner margins.

Sectors that performed the best in Japan’s deflationary period have been technology, healthcare and telecoms. Another area that could be worth considering are large companies that make household consumer items the fast moving nature of this market means that they can take advantage of pricing trends much more efficiently than companies that have a longer sales cycle.

All in all it is important that we revise growth expectations in such a period when getting no return could mean that your money is actually growing as your purchasing power increases.

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